The Lindy Effect: Why The New Shiny Object Will Lose To The Old Dull One

Read time: 3 minutes

The cockroach can survive anything – it’s the epitome of durability.

While being "cockroach-like" isn't a title any business owner desires, deep down, we all crave its guaranteed durability.

A bit of hyperbole? Probably.

But the problem is the entrepreneurial mind is wired to seek opportunity.

The allure of shiny new objects can bring potential upside. However, they can also be massive distractions. I’m aware of these distractions, yet I’m still attracted to them. Chances are, you can relate.

That’s why I’ve challenged myself to think from the lens of a cockroach.

This means integrating durability into the architecture of my business strategy:

• Hype Resistance: Minimize trend hopping

• Market Resilience: Identify battle-tested activities

• Long-Term Lens: Prioritize sustainable growth over rapid expansion

To support this shift, I turned to a time-based principle as a defense against shiny new objects – The Lindy Effect.

What is the Lindy Effect?

The Lindy Effect introduces a fundamental idea: the longer something has been around, the longer it's likely to stick around in the future.

Consider classic books.

Books that have been relevant for a long time are more likely to continue captivating readers in the future. It’s why Shakespeare will remain relevant longer than any new book on the New York Times best-seller list.

It’s a concept that can be applied to technologies, practices, and ideas.

The term “Lindy Effect” was adapted by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (statistician and former trader) as a concept in his book Antifragile. However, it dates back to 1964 as Lindy’s Law to informally predict the lifespan of a comedy or theatre.

We can use it as a decision-making framework in business as the roadmap to longevity in a constantly evolving environment.

Why does the Lindy Effect matter?

It's easy to divert attention away from “lindy” activities in favor of newer, trendier options.

If you have a clear offer with a concise message and an organized solution for a long-standing problem, you will see success if you stick with it over time.

That simple sentence is a lindy business principle — but it’s not as cool as finding a new or novel idea.

Let’s go even deeper into business activities and mindsets. Here are three examples:

1. Depth is more “lindy” than reach: Despite the internet's global reach, cultivating fewer, deeper relationships holds greater significance than amassing a network of many people.

2. Email is more “lindy” than social media: While social media has its place, building trust in the inbox produces better long-term results. Business has thrived on emails for decades.

3. Fundamentals are more “lindy” than nuances: The experts are masters of the fundamentals. It’s a reminder that credibility is built by refining and expanding expertise in a specific topic.

I’m not ignoring shiny objects outright — it’s more of a mental shift to default toward durability and stress-test unproven aspects (to avoid distractions).

How to use the Lindy Effect to your advantage?

The Lindy Effect is a mental framework rooted in objectivity – it forces you to measure history to project future value.

I can point to many examples where history was wrong, so I know it’s not perfect. But I actually see the Lindy Effect related to compound interest.

Proven decisions and actions compound and create a long tail of repeatable success. So resetting your brain to “default to lindy” can combat dopamine with shiny new objects and avoid resetting the compounding effects.

Here are 6 ways I’m considering the Lindy Effect in my business:

Risk Mitigation:

• Strategy: Prioritize strategies or practices with a proven track record (but still leverage assess for asymmetric bets)

• Advantage: Minimizes risk of sudden disruptions and provides stability

Resource Allocation:

• Strategy: Focus resources on actions or opportunities with longevity (but don’t be allergic to strategic experimentation).

• Advantage: Avoid constant shifts to untested trends

Long-Term Planning:

• Strategy: Shape long-term thinking with enduring principles (but don’t be afraid to create my own).

• Advantage: Guides planning with a focus on durability and longevity.

Competitive Advantage:

• Strategy: Concentrate on what has stood the test of time in my market (but don’t be blind to gaps in the market).

• Advantage: Gains a competitive edge by building on battle-tested practices.

Decision-Making:

• Strategy: Look to history for evidence of outcomes (but don’t be ignorant of the facts)

• Advantage: Enhances confidence in decisions, knowing they align with enduring principles.

Adaptability:

• Strategy: Ensure adaptability without sacrificing stability (but don’t hesitate to ditch something that isn’t working).

• Advantage: Positions the business to evolve while maintaining resilience.

Feel free to call me a cockroach – and I’ll thank you for the compliment.

Thanks for reading.

Peter

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