Do I make bad decisions after wins?

_{[Read time: 2.5 minutes]}

It’s funny how success hides its own trap.

The moment you feel certain you’ve cracked the code is usually the moment you stop noticing what really matters.

Last week’s post struck a nerve, with more replies, shares, and resonance than anything I’ve written.

It felt like validation, like someone finally handed me the answer key I’d been chasing. And that’s precisely what makes it dangerous.

I know my brain exaggerates what just happened and forgets what came before it. Four months from now, this will fade into a memory dividend — something I can recall, but not feel.

And despite knowing all that, I still succumb to recency bias, trying to rerun last week’s play to get the same (or bigger) win. We all do.

It’s the same mental quirk that convinces gamblers their luck has changed, founders that one hot streak rewrote the rules of business, and investors that last quarter’s trend will last forever.

Recency bias is powerful because it feels like data, but it isn’t. It’s emotion wearing logic’s clothes. It hijacks your decision-making, making short-term signals look like long-term truths.

I’m trying to notice it in real time, to enjoy the good feelings without letting them distort what I do next.

Because this bias is ever-present in business.

You land one big client and assume every deal will move that smoothly. You have one bad month and decide the model’s broken.

We turn those recent moments into rules. This is why running a business can be emotionally volatile: success and fear live right next to each other.

And, of course, it shows up in pricing — this is a pricing newsletter, after all.

But truthfully, here is what I mean.

When a prospect says yes at your price, it feels like proof: I finally found my number.

When a prospect says “no, that’s too expensive,” it feels like warning: I’m not worth what I thought.

Both reactions feel definitive — relief on one side, rejection on the other — but neither tells the full story.

A “yes” might have nothing to do with value; maybe it was perfect timing or a warm referral. A “no” might reflect budget cycles, competing priorities, or something unrelated.

Yet both moments shape what we believe next. We quietly recalibrate around the latest result instead of the larger pattern.

Here’s the rule I’m reminding myself of:

Just like one good post shouldn’t distort my next decision, one deal shouldn’t reset your price.

Give it some more distance, data, perspective.

One point is an anomaly. Two points make a line. Three points make a trend.

Be well. Talk soon.

— Peter

P.S. Hey, really appreciate you reading this. Thank you.

P.P.S. If a every yes or no makes you rethink your prices, let’s work together to solidify them.

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